U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Impact on Property Markets

Rebecca Rockey

Forecasting Lead

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The U.S. and Chinese economies and property markets are powering through the current trade tensions and are performing well. Despite a few imposed tariffs and a flurry of trade threats this year, China’s economy hasn’t skipped a beat. In the first quarter of 2018, China’s real GDP grew by 6.8%, on par with last year’s robust pace.

  • Most of the tariff proposals have not yet gone into effect. So far, a lot of bluster—not a lot of action.
  • To date, the trade issue has largely been a non-factor in terms of any impact on property markets and capital flows.
  • China and the U.S. continue to negotiate. Progress is being made but the situation remains very fluid.
  • Major disagreements remain, particularly regarding the “Made in China 2025” development strategy and intellectual property and technology transfers.
  • Given the strong economic ties between China and the U.S., the probability of a full-blown trade war is very low.